U.S. Counterterrorism Center Warns al Qaeda Remains a Persistent Global Threat

 

Al Qaeda remains a “serious and evolving danger” more than two decades after the September 11 attacks, the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) cautioned in a new assessment released Friday, urging continued vigilance against the group’s regional affiliates and online propaganda.

Intelligence Flags Yemen Affiliate

The report highlights Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, as the network’s most dangerous offshoot, noting its capability to inspire or direct attacks on U.S. interests abroad and at home.

“Despite sustained counterterrorism pressure, AQAP maintains both the intent and the capability to strike,” said NCTC Director Christine Abizaid during a briefing with reporters. “They remain adaptive and opportunistic.”

Officials said the group continues to exploit Yemen’s prolonged civil conflict to recruit fighters, raise funds and plan operations. U.S. intelligence has tracked attempts to target American diplomatic facilities and commercial aviation in recent months, though no specific or credible threat to the U.S. homeland is currently identified.

A Decentralized but Deadly Network

While ISIS has dominated global headlines in recent years, al Qaeda’s core leadership under Ayman al-Zawahiri’s successors remains active in parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Africa. The group’s decentralized structure allows regional branches—from Somalia’s al-Shabaab to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb—to operate semi-independently while adhering to the broader ideology.

“Al Qaeda has proven remarkably resilient,” said Bruce Hoffman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Its ability to adapt to counterterrorism campaigns and shift resources across theaters makes it a long-term threat.”

The NCTC report warns that conflict zones such as Syria and the Sahel provide fertile ground for recruitment, while encrypted messaging apps and social media continue to amplify extremist narratives worldwide.

Domestic Security Concerns

U.S. officials emphasized that lone-actor or “homegrown” extremists radicalized online pose a particular challenge.

“Digital platforms are a force multiplier,” Abizaid said. “A single online influencer can reach thousands globally, inspiring violence without direct contact or travel.”

The Department of Homeland Security and FBI have stepped up monitoring of online forums, coordinating with tech companies to remove extremist content and identify emerging threats.

Global Partnerships and Challenges

The warning underscores Washington’s reliance on international intelligence sharing. Counterterrorism cooperation with allies in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia remains critical as the U.S. military presence in some regions recedes.

“Working with partners is more important than ever,” said Nathan Sales, former U.S. coordinator for counterterrorism. “Whether in the Horn of Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, local governments are on the front lines. Our support—training, intelligence and limited kinetic action—helps keep the pressure on.”

However, shifting global priorities and competing crises—from the war in Ukraine to tensions in the Indo-Pacific—risk diverting resources and attention from counterterrorism operations.

The Road Ahead

Analysts say the NCTC’s stark assessment is a reminder not to underestimate a group that once carried out the deadliest terror attack on U.S. soil.

“Al Qaeda thrives in ungoverned spaces and feeds on instability,” Hoffman said. “As long as those conditions persist, the ideology will endure.”

Abizaid urged Congress to maintain funding for counterterrorism initiatives and warned against “complacency born of fatigue.”

“Threats evolve,” she said. “We cannot afford to let our guard down.”

For many Americans, the 9/11 attacks feel distant. But the NCTC’s new report underscores that the network responsible for that tragedy—and its global affiliates—remains active, adaptive and intent on striking whenever opportunities arise.